Model for Forecasting Rural Travel Demand Using Feed Forward—Backpropagation Neural Network and Minimized Akaike Information Criterion Algorithm
Reynaldo P. Sahagun
a
,
Dante L. Silva
b
,
Russell L. Diona
c
,
Jay T. Cabuñas
d
,
Kevin Lawrence M. De Jesus
a,e
a School of Graduate Studies, Mapua University, 658 Muralla St., 1002, Intramuros, Manila, Philippines
b School of Civil, Environmental, and Geological Engineering, Mapua University, 658 Muralla St., 1002, Intramuros, Manila, Philippines
c Information and Technology Department, University of Technology and Applied Sciences, PO Box 74, Al Khuwair, Muscat, 133, Sultanate of Oman
d College of Engineering, Mapua Malayan Colleges Mindanao, Davao City, Philippines
e Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, FEU Institute of Technology, P. Paredes St., 1015, Sampaloc, Manila, Philippines
Abstract: Transportation is critical, especially in rural areas as it provides the mobility to people to access different activities satisfying their daily needs. The purpose of this research is to create an artificial neural network (ANN) trip generation model (TGM). 500 households (HH) were surveyed to obtain the independent variables used in the modeling process including the HH size (HHS), number of children in the HH below 7 years old (NCHHBS), number of HH member from 7 to 59 years old (NHHMSF), number of HH member above 59 years old (NHHAF), number of working member of the HH (NWMHH), number of school children in the HH (NSCHH), number of helpers in the HH (NHHH), number of motorize vehicles in the HH (NMVHH), HH income (HHI), highest educational attainment (HEA), head of HH age (HHHA), and number of driver’s license holder in the HH (NDLHHH). Using the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm (LMA) as the training algorithm (TA) and hyperbolic tangent sigmoid (HTS) function as the activation function (AF), the governing TGM was observed in the 12–25-1 network structure with the highest R value = 0.98476 and least Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 9.04%. Moreover, the governing network structure achieved the minimized Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) value at 25 hidden neurons (HN) indicating that the network has already been generalized and was the best model among those observed in this study. The outcomes of the research showed the efficacy of artificial neural networks in developing trip generation prediction models (PM).